Strategic voting increased during the last federal election

Researchers analysed strategic voting during the elections and demonstrated that it was slightly more present during the 2015 federal election than in the past.

Researchers analysed strategic voting during the elections and demonstrated that it was slightly more present during the 2015 federal election than in the past.

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Researchers analysed strategic voting during the elections and demonstrated that it was slightly more present during the 2015 federal election than in the past.

Scholars associated with the Making Electoral Democracy Work project,(funded by SSHRC), have analysed strategic voting in recent Canadian elections. They find that Canadians voted strategically in a slightly higher proportion than usual during the 2015 federal election.

Jean-François Daoust, PhD candidate in political science at the Université of Montréal and Damien Bol, professor at King's College London, used several surveys to estimate the proportion of strategic voting in the last provincial elections in Ontario and Quebec and the last federal election in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia.

The table below displays some results of the research. 9.4% in Ontario, 9.6% in British-Columbia and 6.2% au Québec: These are the estimated proportions of strategic voters in the last federal election. There is a slight increase in strategic voting compared to the two provincial elections. Daoust and Bol also find that the propensity to vote strategically depends on partisanship (less strategic voting among partisans) and the perceived degree of party polarisation perceived (more strategic voting with higher perceived polarisation).

The frequency of strategic voting in different elections

Ontario 2011 (provincial) Québec 2012 (provincial) British-Columbia (federal) Ontario 2015 (federal) Quebec 2015 (federal) Total
N 651 562 1062 994 976 4245
Proportion of potential strategic voters 17,4% 17,6% 19,5% 19,6% 17,83% 18,54%
Proportion of strategic voters 6,3% 7,3% 9,42% 9,56% 6,15% 7,94%
Proportion of strategic voters (among potential strategic voters) 36,2% 41,4% 48,3% 48,8% 34,5% 42,8%

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