A century of data
Their analysis takes a long view – as far back as a century.
In a study published in 2019 in the Canadian Journal of Political Science, Blais and Sevi (his doctoral student at the time), along with Blais's colleague Vincent Arel-Bundock, analyzed more than 21,000 candidacies over 29 general elections in Canada since 1921.
They found that while female candidates historically received fewer votes than men, this gap was primarily due to contextual factors.
"Women were running for weaker parties to begin with, which is why they were less frequently elected," said Blais, an emeritus professor. "When we account for variables such as party affiliation and district competitiveness, the gap between men and women shrinks considerably."
In fact, historical trends show significant progress: in the 1920s, female candidates received, on average, 2.5 percentage points fewer votes than their male counterparts. Today, this difference has nearly vanished, with the gap now at around 0.5 percentage points, something that's statistically insignificant.
For Blais, the conclusion is clear: "There is no bias against women in their likelihood of electoral success in Canada, except perhaps for the position of prime minister."