Two documents are being talked about in the lead-up to the summit: a leaked draft of the final statement, and a Canadian policy-experts paper calling for Canada and the EU to draw up a "compact" as middle powers. Together, do these map out a significant change in tack?
We'll see.
I'm not completely surprised by the call for a compact. Over the years, there's been discussion, especially with France but also with Germany, of building an international alliance of like-minded powers. Carney himself, in his speech to the World Economic Forum at Davos last January, made a case for pragmatism in this area, of building fit-for-purpose alliances. The intention matters in a world where, unfortunately, cooperation is no longer very popular.
That doesn't mean we'll see any new institutions coming out of this summit. Rather, I think we'll see a reaffirmation of preserving existing multilateral institutions that, since the Second World War, have been hard-won and hard-to-build, though imperfect: namely, the United Nations, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. If Canada and the EU can put their energy into them, modernize them and try to build more legitimacy and confidence in them, that would be a good investment of their capital.
But let's see what comes out of the summit's final statement. I'm quite optimistic. I think this event is one of the rare moments in the calendar of international affairs this year that gives us a little hope, where we can say that something good will come out of it for Canada and for the EU. The fact it's all happening in Montreal is a positive for our students of political science, too, as it should be for anyone here who's interested in international affairs.
I hope we'll come away with more ideas of how, as experts, we can support these initiatives.