To compare the effect of the different approaches, students were randomly assigned to one of three experimental groups or the control group:
- In the “career guidance” group, students attended regular sessions over a three-year period, during which they planned their educational and professional future and explored study and career options to ease the transition from high school to university.
- In the “financial aid” group, students were offered a $9,600 grant—over and above the province's loans and bursaries program—conditional on enrolment in higher education, paid in several instalments over two years.
- In the “mixed” group, students received both the guidance program and the financial incentive.
- In the control group, students received neither intervention.
After four years, the career guidance program yielded a 10 percentage-point increase in post-secondary enrolment among participants, who were 50 per cent more likely than members of the control group to continue their education. This increase reduced the gap between the low-income participants and their more advantaged peers by 70 per cent.
“It translated into an additional 50 students enrolling in university after taking the program, which is quite significant,” said Renée.
Ten years later, at age 29, the students who had taken the career guidance program were earning an average of $2,700 per year more than those who had not – a 10-per-cent difference.
The financial aid intervention increased enrolment in community colleges and universities slightly (by five and four percentage points respectively) but had no impact on attainment of a post-secondary degree. There was no statistically significant impact on income in adulthood; in fact, some of the data suggest it was slightly lower.
“We already have a good loans-and-bursaries program in Canada,” said Renée. “Additional financial aid may encourage young people to enrol, but not necessarily in the right programs or under the right conditions. They don’t necessarily benefit financially.”
The additional financial support comes at a net cost to society and, unlike career guidance, doesn’t generate additional tax revenue from higher future earnings.